Hurricane Matthew Threat To US But Staying South

Hurricane Matthew Threat To US But Staying South

screen-shot2016-10-05-06_04_39Wednesday October 5 – The latest update on Hurricane Matthew looks worse for Florida to South Carolina as it is forecast to strengthen over The Bahamas and get closer to the coast  But overall it is better for Maryland. So while the Orioles lost their only playoff game last night, we may win with the weekend. In the effort to keep this short on wording, here is the basic idea that I mentioned a few days ago: A slower storm allows a cold front to pass through and kick the hurricane out to sea. So we could get a shower from that front on Saturday, Ocean City will get some high waves, but Matthew should move off the coast before it gets close…. At least via the latest modeling.

*State Of Emergency still in effect for Florida to the Carolinas

Below are the maps, and keep in mind that while I still don’t like long range tropical forecasting, the GFS Model is showing a large loop and perhaps a second pass by south Florida next week.

Morning Stats:

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 74.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM NNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

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Close Pass To Florida:

The European Model shows a glancing blow near Daytona this weekend, but a cold front will force the storm away from Maryland.

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GFS Model –> slider

This shows the same curve out to sea, but also a large loop and turn back to south Florida next week. I would take that with a grain of salt at this time

National Hurricane Center Forecast

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Computer Model Spaghetti Plot

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October 5th, 2016|Tags: , , , , , , |