3 PM Tuesday October 4 – This afternoon update on Hurricane Matthew is to confirm that the storm is still churning at 145 mph after crossing the tip of Haiti this morning. There are no reports from this poor nation, but the impacts are without doubt devastating. Next up will be eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. At this point, the environment allow for sustained intensity with and a push farther west closer to the US coast. This includes much of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas coastline. Virginia, Maryland, and north is where the track begins to widen and vary.
Warnings have already been posted for parts of south Florida. AS far as we are concerned, the timing for our region will be next weekend, with Saturday likely the day we get whatever Matthew will give us.
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 74.3W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.02 INCHES
The track of Mathew has been showing the push to the west due to the influence of a blocking high to the north… what is giving us nice weather now. Please note the cone of uncertainty, not just the center. With that in mind, you will see that the latest GFS Model below actually brings the eye to the coast, but shows it interacting with a cold front in Maryland next weekend, allowing it to kick out to the Atlantic near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Meanwhile the National Hurricane Center track keeps it closer to the Northeast US. This is five days away, so a slight shift in timing or track can have a big impact on where this will go. Nothing is set in stone yet.