Flooding Rain And Tropical Storm Matthew

Flooding Rain And Tropical Storm Matthew

screen-shot2016-09-29-05_58_17Thursday September 29 – The rain is here and there is plenty more on the way. Some Flood Warnings have already been issued on the Delmarva, and other warnings are scattered due to heavy pockets of rain. This will be an added concern to prone areas, including Elliccott City.

We are under the influence of an upper level Low to our west that will funnel in moisture from the south and dump it right on top of us. The latest rainfall expectations have increased to put many of us over 3 inches, but some up to 8 inches by Saturday. This slow moving patter will linger a little longer. Temperatures will reach the 70s each afternoon, but that is an after thought. Here is a quick look at the sliders showing rain timeline today, and into the weekend.

 

Simulated Radar: HRRR Model –> slider

Storm Track: GFS Model –> slider

 

Rainfall Forecast Through Saturday

screen-shot2016-09-29-05_31_35

 

Tropical Storm Matthew:

screen-shot2016-09-29-06_00_18As of this morning, TS Matthew has 65 mph moving west at 16 mph. I do not like giving tropical outlooks move than 5 days away, because there are too many variables. Here is a storm very far south that will interact with mid latitude wind flow and that is subject to a lot of chance. Some certainties:  This will reach hurricane intensity and make an abrupt right turn to the north as it interacts with another system in the Caribbean. This should take it north of Aruba and across eastern Cuba.  Beyond that, all eyes will be on the east coast next week. But too soon to say much more.

 

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September 29th, 2016|Tags: , , , , , , |