Tropical Storm Warning Until Further Notice

Tropical Storm Warning Until Further Notice

Screen Shot2016-09-02 16_22_00September 2 2016- Tropical Storm Hermine has been inland much of today and on the path through Georgia and the Carolinas. It is expected to emerge back over the Atlantic from the Outer Banks, then curve up the coast and stall. Well, meander, and possibly drift back closer to the coast as it gains more strength. The thing is, it will linger for much of next week. This goes beyond just the Labor Day Weekend, but through the work week. So the National Hurricane Center has issued Tropical Storm Warnings up the Delmarva and New Jersey coast with the timeline, until further notice.

At 5 PM Friday

  • Winds = 50 mph
  • Located 30 WNW of Charlestown, SC
  • Moving NE at 20 mph

Numerous computer models show Hermine stalling or wandering off of the Mid Atlantic coast for at least  three days. At that point, there will be warm water to supply the fuel, but it might lose its tropical characteristics, while still producing winds 50 to 70 mph. There will be direct flooding and beach erosion. Tides will not be able to flow out, so water will pile up the Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, and Hudson Rivers to add to inland flooding. Check out the GFS Model projection, and see more notes below.

GFS Model Mid Level Winds –-> Slider

 

The location, regardless of how close, will produce flooding along the coast that will extend multiple high tides. It will also pile water through Long Island Sound, into New York City, and cut down the New Jersey and Delmarva coasts. The potential beach erosion could be devastating. This is NOT Sandy, which did make landfall and move inland, but it will be extensive.

Many other models showing the stall or wade rig of Hermine

Screen Shot2016-09-02 16_20_15

 

The National Hurricane Center shows a bubble of uncertainty at the end of the cone. This shows their lack of confidence of where it can drift.  This does include possible landfall, but that is on the outer edge of potential.

Screen Shot2016-09-02 16_19_20

The Net Result

  • Extensive Flooding
  • Extensive Beach Erosion
  • No Swimming and this will be dangerous for surfers.
  • Rain in Ocean City Saturday.. but beyond depends on the location of the storm and outer bands.

 

 

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