Sunday Afternoon Storm Timeline Then Cooler

Sunday Afternoon Storm Timeline Then Cooler

Screen Shot2016-08-21 07_10_25Sunday August 21- As the end of summer draws near, shorter days and cooler air to the north makes cold fronts a little stronger. That does not guarantee severe storms, as we only have a marginal risk today. But it does mean a sharper contrast of air masses and cooler air on the other side. So the upcoming week will feel more comfortable as some school begin the new year and most teachers will be setting up their classrooms.  A few mornings may feel crisp, but the afternoons will still be warm, reaching the lower 80s.

You will notice more clouds today, but the timing of today’s cold front will be mid afternoon to evening across much of our area. Then evening for the Eastern Shore and beaches.

One thing I watch for is the wind direction off of the Chesapeake Bay. Should the winds turn from the south to southeast, an approaching line of storms can be enhanced in metro Baltimore. There is a hint of that today so the threat of rain is pretty good. Below is a look at the wind snapshot and a comparison of storm timelines simulated radars from two computer models.  While I like to show these sliders, they are not perfect. You will notice the NAM model has a distinct cluster of strong storms, but the HRRR spreads the action out and breaks up individual cells. The later is updated hourly, so it is the model of choice as time approaches. I will try to post another update early afternoon.

Wind Snapshot:

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NOTE:

The second slider below shows a better chance of showers around lunch time.. but the largest storms will be mid afternoon into early evening. 

Simulated Radar: NAM Model –> slider

Compare to….

Simulated Radar: HRRR Model –> slider

 

Cold Front Means Colder Air To Follow

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Temperature Outlook

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The BWI snapshot here does not represent the 50s Tuesday morning that many inland areas may experience.

Screen Shot2016-08-21 07_12_16

 

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