June 30 – It is Thursday morning on the last day of June and morning temperatures started in the 50s for most of us inland from the water. The Chesapeake Bay water temp is 76°F. This is roughly 10 degrees below average, and it can’t last forever. It will be the next cold front that will help to build up some heat over the next two days, and yet no major heat in sight for the Independence holiday weekend. The only action in the near future will be some thunderstorms Friday as the main energy passes well north. There may be some lingering showers in southern Maryland and the beaches on Saturday afternoon. Then we should be OK through Monday with only a slight chance of late showers on July 4th.
What seems more interesting is temperature outlook. I show the GEFS Ensemble often as it is the most accurate predictor, but it is not perfect. The projection for Sunday in Baltimore shows 77°F for the high temperatures. This is with high pressure and generally dry weather weather. If that was even close to verifying, it would be 10 degrees below average. Even if we hit 80°F that would be much cooler than a typical early July weekend. Some warmer air will return by the end of next week.