4 PM Tue June 28 – A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for much of southern Pennsylvania, central Maryland, and northern Delaware until 10 PM. This means storms have the potential of winds reaching over 60 mph, large hail, and perhaps isolated tornadoes. The warm and humid air is feeding into an approaching cold front.
A line of storms has developed this afternoon that is more distinct that even the short term high resolution models had anticipated. It has prompted the National Weather Service to issue Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for southern PA until 4:45PM. This is worth tracking as it moves to the east and south because central Maryland is under the influence of winds from the Chesapeake Bay. This southeast wind often foretells that storms will hold together as they approach metro Baltimore. In fact, as the radar simulation suggests below, there may be a slowing down or stalling of the movement for a few hours.
Please keep in mind that this simulation is built without the full identification of the line of storms, so what arrives in central Maryland might be more widespread for a few hours into the evening.
Even if storms do not reach severe limits, they can produce gusty winds, dangerous lightning, and hail.