Thursday June 16 1:30 PM – Watching a line of severe storms to our west move our way, it is easy to expect we will get in on it. Combine the high humidity and easterly wind flow and those storms will have plenty of resources to survive past the mountains. But digging a little deeper, there is a frontal boundary draped across our area, with central Virginia reaching the upper 80s, but a northeasterly wind is holding central Maryland and PA in the 60s. The winds are holding this nearly stationary, but should it budge a little, that can change the track of the worst weather tonight.
We still have a Flash Flood Watch and under the risk of storms turning severe. That is not a promise, but a good chance that some storms could produce a quick 1 inch or more of rain, damaging hail over 1 inch, or winds over 60 mph. The best we can do now is plot the front and show the hourly radar simulations that basically calculate what is seen now and how it is likely to progress. This shows a few clusters of storms reaching our area, with the most strongest and most likely severe weather dropping just west and south of Washington.