Severe Storm Enhanced Risk Today: Tornado And Rain Timeline

Severe Storm Enhanced Risk Today: Tornado And Rain Timeline

Screen Shot2016-06-05 08_08_07Sunday June 5 – Today is the day we have been expecting as the severe storm outlook will peak over our region. There will be showers to watch on radar all day, but the first waves in the morning will pass on the north side. It will be what develops during the afternoon that will be more intense.  A lot of the severe risk depends on heat, where temperatures reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s. This appears to build near I-95, but more likely on the Delmarva. So metro Baltimore and Washington should look out starting at 4 PM, it will be the hours that follow on Maryland’s Lower Eastern Shore that I am most concerned about. The risk will be with flash flooding downpours, large hail and damaging winds. There is a chance of isolated tornadoes as well, but that is more likely with most unstable air on the Delmarva. See maps below.

Time Frame

  • Western Suburbs/Southern PA: 1 to 4 PM
  • Metro Baltimore/Washington: 4 to 6 PM
  • Eastern Shore To Beaches: 5 to 8 PM

CAPE- Convective Available Potential Energy

This is a snapshot of the energy after 5PM. A CAPE measurement over 1000K/kg is moderate. That is the green shade near Baltimore and Annapolis. But notice the bright yellow and orange colored regions. Over 2500 J/kg is there there is strong instability. Compare this to the radar simulation timeline below a this will feed into the line of storms during the evening.

Radar Simulation –> slider

See the updated timeline posted at 1 PM here

 

Tornado Risk –> slider

Another measurement of the energy and wind sheer needed to ‘possibly’ produce twister. This is not a promise, just the highest risk

 

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June 5th, 2016|Tags: , , , , |