June 1 – The Atlantic begins on June 1 and ends November 30. This year has been a little unusual with the first storm being named in January. That was Alex and it became a hurricane. The second storm named Bonnie, was briefly a tropical storm that made landfall on Charleston, SC at the end of May. The complete list of names is below. But the early activity does NOT indicate an abundant year. In fact NOAA as put out their seasonal forecast and they are calling for an average year. But considering that the past three years has average 4 hurricanes, this will be an increase in activity.
The record El Nino that developed last year is fading away. That would normally inhibit tropical storm formation in the Atlantic, but should not be an influencing factor this year. It has also been indicated that we may be at the tail end of a 30 year active period in the Atlantic. That began in 1995, but the past three years of lower activity and weaker storms shows the cycle of warm water known as the Multi-Decadal Oscillation.
Location of the storms is not given. But my atmospheric memory theory has already shown itself with Bonnie. I think we will have a good chance of at least one landfalling tropical system in the Mid Atlantic region later in the season given our storm track over the second half of winter. Tracks like to repeat themselves, especially when there has been a persistent pattern.
Here is the NOAA seasonal outlook. The storm names and more links are below.