Wet Then Warm: Rain Timeline Then Temperatures For Memorial Weekend

Wet Then Warm: Rain Timeline Then Temperatures For Memorial Weekend

May 21 2016 – The rain is here this morning, as expected. It has made for a soaker for some running events and the start of Preakness Day in Baltimore. But this also raises the issues that 100% chance of rain does not always mean 100% of the day. There is a storm passing to our south, and  as it moves off the coast will keep us in a chilly northeast wind gusting to 20 mph. But the steadiest rain should break up after this morning. Below are two model simulations showing the best and worst case scenario for the afternoon rain.  If the kids are crazy from being stuck inside and the full moon, hang in there… We are still in for a big time warm up this week and it should feel like summer for Memorial Day Weekend.

Radar Simulation —> sliders

Best Case Scenario: HRRR Model

Rain beaks up with a dry pocket over central Maryland during the afternoon. But a few isolated showers possible with steady rain remaining in the mountains.

Worse Case Scenario: NAM/WRF Model

Showers more widespread and last all day

 

Temperatures

If the rain lingers, then highs will range from the upper 50s to near 60°F. But if the rain breaks up as the HRRR suggest, then we could reach the mid 60s.

Outlook: Much Warmer

We should reach the 80s by Wednesday as the heat stream allows for the flow of warm air to surge north. This will take us into Memorial Day Weekend.

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