Rain More Likely On Sunday

Rain More Likely On Sunday

Screen Shot2016-03-12 06_35_31Saturday March 12 – At least the start of the weekend will be nice, but the clouds lingering on the southern horizon will creep back in. I am sorry, I was optimistic for keeping this weekend dry. There is a weakness in the atmosphere and it will settle overhead this weekend. The strong storm in eastern Texas will send more moisture northward and act on this boundary in the atmosphere. There may be a stray shower this evening or tonight. But almost certainly it increase the rain Sunday. The only questions will be where this rain sets up and the timing.

Daylight Saving Time: Tonight is when we turn the clocks forward 1 hour (and replace batteries in smoke detectors). We will not get to enjoy the full benefits of later light due to the clouds. But here is the adjustment we will see.

  • Saturday: Sunrise at 6:22 AM ; Sunset at 6:11 PM
  • Sunday: Sunrise at 7:20 AM; Sunset at 7:12 PM

As of now, the best chance for central Maryland, including Baltimore will be mid day and early afternoon Sunday. That is bad timing for the Shamrock 5K and St. Patrick’s Parade. Here is a comparison of the GFS and WRF models showing the rain timeline so you can best prepare your plans. Rain will linger through Monday, then we will get another surge of very warm air mid week.

Rain Timeline: Wide View From GFS Model




Simulated Radar: Close Up From NAM/WRF Model

This model tends to be a little aggressive with rainfall. Here we see it building in to central Maryland late morning with Baltimore on the southern edge. Any adjustment or shift north of 30 to 50 miles could make a huge difference in the results for the city. But the mountains, northern suburbs, and southern Pennsylvania should expect a wet Sunday. Annapolis and southern Maryland might get away from this push during the daylight hours.

 

Temperature Outlook

Record high temps this week will likely NOT be challenged:

  • March 15 (Wed): 82°F in 1990
  • March 16 (Thu): 85°F in 1945

Screen Shot2016-03-12 06_31_05

 

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