March Starts Spring But Still Sights On Snow

March Starts Spring But Still Sights On Snow

WeatherMapMarch1March 1 6:15 AM – Today will bring Baltimore the first sunset in the 6 PM hour of the year. It is also the first day of Meteorological Spring. Entire months are grouped together for seasons, but it will likely be written on your calendar as March 20th, starting at 12:30 AM EDT.  But weather rarely cooperates with the calendar, or the groundhog for that matter. It also appears to no cooperate with Super Tuesday as this storm will impact many states voting in their primaries today.

This is the first of two systems this week will bring us progressively colder temperatures. The timing has also sped up, so I must point out the adjustment I’ve made tracking the main event this week. At first glance, we were expecting ‘something’ during the day on Friday. It now looks like snow will arrive by midnight. In March, that maximizes the impact since it does not have to compete with the higher sun angle. So Friday morning should have some road stickage and accumulation to impact travel, especially west of the Chesapeake Bay.

Quick Forecast Highlights:

  • Sunny: Today will start off chilly and dry. The wind and clouds will increase later this afternoon.
  • Rain: Tonight, ending Wednesday morning. Might have snow mixed in at the end west and north of the ‘Bay.
  • Windy: Wednesday will have gusts to 40 mph.
  • Snow: Thursday night. Begins by midnight and lasts through Friday morning.
  • Colder: Weekend will be chilly with flurries.

First Storm:

This system will be a quick hit for our region. Rain should not arrive until after midnight, and only last for a few hours. Here the NAM/WRF Model shows it departing by rush hour Wednesday. But strong winds will follow.




 

Ending with snow?

I keep showing this GFS Model snapshot on Wednesday morning. It is hinting at snow at the end of this event. But I also want to point out that freezing line still well inland. S0 not much impact if at all. Plus, this should be just before sunrise, as this maps is a summary of the 6 hours leading up to 6 AM

 

Second Storm: Snow With Stickage

The arrival of this system now appears to be roughly 12 hours earlier than first glance a few days ago. That changes everything in March. Instead of competing with the higher sun angle and marginal temperatures, the flakes can have maximum impact. I have been telling every school I visited lately that if you want snow to do something in March, you need most of it to fall or at least start during the night hours.

Here we see this arriving by midnight with moderate snow through sunrise. At this time I see the GFS as the most reliable model and track… that takes the bulk of the snow away during the morning. Daytime snow will lighten up and likely result in wet roads with marginal temperatures and increasing sun angle.

*I will have my first call for snowfall accumulation on Wednesday





The Canadian GEM Model is more aggressive, especially with a potential blizzard for coastal New England. But I am showing this purely to support the arrival overnight and moderate snow impacting our region between midnight and daybreak Friday.

Screen Shot2016-03-01 05_35_01

 

Temperature Outlook

Note the mild Friday outlook. This is subject to change based on how much snow sticks, and how long the system lingers. Still, the high on Friday will be above freezing. It will be the morning hours with the impact from this event.  Colder air over the weekend will also come with flurries.

Screen Shot2016-03-01 05_32_49

Faith in the Flakes

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March 1st, 2016|Tags: , , , , |