Warm Leap Year Day End Of Week Snow More Likely

Warm Leap Year Day End Of Week Snow More Likely

radar6AMFebruary 29 – This extra day of the year will continue where the weekend left off. Sunday brought a high temperate of 65°F to Baltimore. While this Leap Year Day will be a little cooler, strong winds will bring us back between the upper 50s and near 60°F. The system swinging through will produce showers in the mountains but they will have trouble moving east. Just a slight risk this morning, then the sun returns afternoon with gusty winds over 30 mph. Two more storms this week both have colder air with them.

Leap Year Day Weather Stats In Baltimore

  • Record High: 76°F in 1976
  • Record Low: 9°F in 1980
  • Average: 49°F; 29°F
  • Sunset: 5:59 PM

I have been holding back and downplaying the threat of snow, but it needs to be addressed. I do not like to adjust my forecast based on one model run, but there has been an identifiable trend in the past day: The next two storms will be colder and arrive sooner. As I mentioned in my post last night, as we get into March, we need snow to fall overnight for the best chance of snow stickage on the roads. So snow will fall, but the new debate about impact on travel or just wet roads adds more complication.

Here is the quick look at both systems. I am tracking this here to help show you the trends. The Wednesday morning system looks like cold air will catch up for the storm to end with snow, but the freezing line will stay north and west of Baltimore. So if there is any road stickage, the would be the best chance (northern Maryland and southern Pennsylvania). There is still time to sort that out and plan ahead. The Friday system looks more impressive and arrival before daybreak could be just enough to get going for some impact. That is a change to my suggestion before. I am open to adjustment and there are four days to track the timing of this.

Mid Week Storm




Friday Storm

The cold air needed for this storm, that I had earlier said might be missing, looks like it will be generated by the storm itself. This small pocket of cold air aloft Friday morning is a reflection of that storm.

Screen Shot2016-02-29 05_29_37

GFS Model

Trending colder and earlier arrival. This would bring snow in before sunrise, making for maximum impact. While this flares up to a strong coastal storm, it looks like most of our snow will be during the morning.

 

Canadian Model:

This is more in line with the GFS showing the earlier arrival and snow impact during Friday morning.




The second half of March may hold the return to a cooler pattern. Winter had some shots left in it… Check Out The Full Collection Of FITF Shirts And Snow Sticks

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February 29th, 2016|Tags: , , , , , , |