February 24 – 4:30 PM Update- Here is quick look at the latest radar simulation as it might help you plan for what to expect this evening. This radar snapshot at 4:30 PM shows one cluster of heavy rain moving north from central Maryland through southern Pennsylvania. Winds will increase and it will continue to mix the air dragging the warm up with it. The thin line to the west is moving to the east and will be the focus for the main severe storm threat. It’s the changing direction in addition to the strong mid level winds that are why we have the risk for storms to turn severe. This includes winds over 60 mph, large hail over 1 inch in diameter, and an isolated tornado. We are under a Tornado Watch until 11 PM, but that will be shaved off after this line passes. See that simulation below.
Surface Winds: Southeast feeds the beast
If you have watched/read my forecasts, you might be familiar to when I reference the southeast wind. That is what we have now. This feeds moisture off the Chesapeake Bay and rides upslope into the hills inland. That is a converging force as the storm line arrives from the west. This is another reason why storms have increased chance for maximum potential this evening.
Simulate Radar 5PM to 11 PM
This shows the movement of the line, plus the individual cells moving to the NNE. The timing for metro Washington and Baltimore will be around 7 PM… but we are in the thick of it for a few hours tracking from west to east. Be careful driving and pay attention for flooding updates in addition to the severe storm threat.