Tuesday Feb 23 10:05 PM – I first want to address the Freezing Rain Advisory overnight that includes Frederick County and westward in Maryland and PA. There has been some concerning questions asked this evening and I want to assure you this is an elevation thing, mainly above 1000 Ft, if at all. I think our main issue will be fog from the supersaturated environment we had after the recent rain and snow melt. Next up will be flooding and the risk of severe storms Wednesday.
The risk of severe weather along the Gulf Coast tonight will have dire results, but the storm will peak tonight. The energy will ride north and could clip our region late Wednesday, but in a diminished form. The core Low Pressure will pass through the Ohio Valley. The combination of upper level winds and warm air will be the ingredients to determine where sever storms will develop and track. Pushing this damp, cool air mass out of the region is the first step, but strong winds will help. The best chance for severe storms will be in eastern North Carolina. But the slight risk will push into southern Maryland. We have a marginal risk in central Maryland and Delaware.
We ‘should’ reach the mid 60s during the afternoon, but the last time we had this set up, the warm air struggled to arrive. Here is the HRRR Model forecast high temperature map. Below the timeline for the mid level winds and the timeline for the heaviest rain or storm band in the evening.
Mid Level Winds:
The GFS Model suggest the peak timing will be during the evening.