Weekend Warmup And Winter Weather Chance Next Week

Weekend Warmup And Winter Weather Chance Next Week

FriAmTempsRadarFebruary 19 6:30 AM – Under normal circumstances just the big temperature bounce underway would be enough to talk about. Temps this morning are starting in the teens and twenties. A warm front pushing light snow into the mountains will bring us clouds this morning, then shift the air mass. Notice the 30s in the Ohio Valley. That doesn’t seem like much now, but by tomorrow afternoon our temps will range from 58°F to 62°F. Big bounce = big deal, right?  A Saturday to enjoy outside to cure your cabin fever.  Well the top question I still get is about the potential storm next week.  So below is a quick look. Two things I want to point out:

 

1) There should be rain showers on Sunday.

This is important because how it behaves might give the hint to which model might have a better handle on the winter event.  I am only showing the GFS (the best performer this year) and the Canadian (which won this past storm).

Screen Shot2016-02-19 05_54_06

 

So after we see the rain event to end our weekend, we will know if the Canadian is on a roll, or we shift focus back on the GFS model. Why…?

 

2) Next Week Storm?

The GFS is still quicker, by about 12 hours. Should that be the case, then we will be watching just rain, with s brief onset of snow in the mountains. Should the Canadian’s slower solution be correct, then we look for the arrival Tuesday night with more snow west of I-95.  But please see the comparison of sliders below.  This will not be an all snow event. In fact it looks like a warmer push by morning.  But, a second smaller system could follow with light snow Thursday.

Screen Shot2016-02-19 05_56_19

 

Compare the sliders:

GFS (faster and warmer= rain)




Canadian (slower and colder = start with snow and second systems Thursday)

Temperature Outlook:

Keep in mind that this solution is based on the faster and warmer set up Tuesday. The track and timing could very well lower those temperatures.

Screen Shot2016-02-19 05_32_09

 

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February 19th, 2016|Tags: , , , , , |