February 14 9:45 PM Update: The one good thing about this storm, is that it arrives on a holiday… With schools closed. With that out of the equation, we still need to consider everybody else that has to drive or go to work. Most of our area is under a Winter Storm Watch or Winter Weather Advisory Monday. As I was working with my clients this evening I realize there are two main questions: 1) when will the snow start? 2) When will the changeover? Toss in the total snow and ice, and we can round this out below. If you remember what I wrote yesterday and this morning, the location of the High Pressure around New England at 7 AM Monday will help determine the track of the storm. I will revisit that point when plotted.
Onset: Snow Starting:
Here is the HRRR model timeline. Notice A) One band of snow between 1 AM and 4 AM. B) The main snow will be in southern Maryland and Virginia all morning and slowly push north. The morning will show more snow for the south and it will pile up, so roads will be trouble there. My concern for the first batch is virga (showing up on radar but sublimating before reaching the ground). But that will be gone before daybreak. That batch arrives in Washington and Annapolis later in the morning and Baltimore by lunchtime.