February 13 – We are in the midst of our coldest days of the season, and still have a Wind Chill Advisory through Sunday. But we must look just past Valentines Day to Monday for the next event. Having a Presidents Day with snow is almost like saying the sun will rise tomorrow. A Winter Storm Watch has been posted by the National Weather Service for counties in Maryland west of Baltimore, and northern Virginia. This is just a ‘watch’ for the potential of heavy snow and icing. I expect that is the watch is not extended east, metro Baltimore and northern Delmarva will be under a Winter Weather Advisory when issued tomorrow. Also- The Pennsylvania Counties not included now is just a demonstration that NWS needs to coordinate better. They should be in the same ‘watch’ and as seen in my first call map below… will get a decent amount of snow.
Below is my first call for snowfall, and another look at two models I have been tracking. It looks like the Canadian GEM’s colder solution is the one to follow per my suggestion the past few days. I see the GFS Model trending back east and a little colder, but it still has questions. My first call for snowfall map is below as well. Bur first my main points:
- Monday is nearly guaranteed. The Tuesday part is the big question.
- Cold Will Hold: Arctic Air Masses often linger longer than models suggest.
- Bay Icing Up: The near record cold is chilling down and freezing the water on the northern Chesapeake Bay. That will limit the warming influence with wind shift ahead of the next storm.
- Atmospheric Memory: The track of recent storms has left a weakness in the atmosphere that should pull the storm to the coast..
My First Call For Snowfall
Monday snow is a given. It will last all day. If there is a change over to ice or rain, it will begin Monday evening. This is just for Monday… and depending on if or when there is a change over, I’ve left the upside potential in the typical colder west/north areas in purple with a chance to get over 5 inches.
Comparing Model Tracks and Timelines:
I am showing the colder run first because I think this model performs better with cold patterns. This shows a stronger block in New England. Thus, the next storm track is farther south and the cold holds longer. This follows with light snow Wednesday.