Wind Chill Advisory, Monday Snow But Tuesday Split

Wind Chill Advisory, Monday Snow But Tuesday Split

Screen Shot2016-02-13 07_36_21February 13 – If you have not heard the term Polar Vortex (again) this week, it’s back. The core of the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere is diving towards New England and we get a piece of it in the Mid Atlantic. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect through Sunday morning. for much of our region. This takes 30 mph winds with gusts to 50 mph at times and takes wind chills from our bitterly cold temps down well below zero. The coldest will be northern Maryland and southern Pennsylvania. Flurres and snow showers will continue all day as streamers off of Lake Erie continue to make it well south. This may not all be easy to track on radar, and some could drop a quick coating. Below is a look at some temperature snapshots, but then the storm that follows. At this point, there is good agreement that we will have snow on Monday… Go figure, it’s Presidents Day. We should get a few inches of snow during the day, increasing towards evening. But why happens on Tuesday is split. The GFS Model that has done well in the past month cuts the storm early and brings in warm air turning to all rain in central Maryland, then ending with some snow. But the Canadian Model tracks the low farther east and keeps ice around I-95, with rain on Delmarva, but snow inland.  They both show another system to follow on Wednesday… following the temperature trend for each.

But First: Temperatures And Wind Chills

Records?

  1. Saturday Feb 13: Record Low = 1°F in 1983; Coldest Daily High 10°F in 1899 (but our high will be at midnight then falling all day)
  2. Sunday Feb 14: Record Low = -2°F in 1979; Coldest Daily High 18°F in 1916 (best chance to get this one)

Screen Shot2016-02-13 07_38_45   Screen Shot2016-02-13 07_39_09 Screen Shot2016-02-13 07_40_19   Storm Next Week…. Snow Monday, but split track Tuesday. First,

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Canadian Model:

I am showing the colder run first because I think this model performs better with cold patterns. This shows a stronger block in New England. Thus, the next storm track is farther south and the cold holds longer. This follows with light snow Wednesday.

 

GFS Model:

This has been the best performer over the past month, including the blizzard. But I am not certain it is handling the arctic air the best. It had a major computer upgrade, yet might still be pushing the cold air out too soon. Notice the High Pressure Monday farther south than the Canadian GEM. This allows the storm to cut farther west and be warmer for us. This still shows snow most of Monday, increasing towards evening. But a shorter period of ice and then rain Tuesday. The second system on Wednesday is farther north as wetter for us as well.

We shall see…..

 Warming Trend Next Week- After The Storm

Screen Shot2016-02-13 07_33_59 Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

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