Storm Outlook: Change In Course Or Not?

Storm Outlook: Change In Course Or Not?

February 11- As we are just getting our preview before the full force arctic blast this weekend, many eyes are already looking beyond to the storm next week.  If you follow my forecast style, especially with long range outlooks, I do not give snow expectations too early because things change. It is my confidence in the chaos theory. Many small variables can change subtlety and lead to dramatic changes in a storm that has not even formed yet.  But if you noticed that snowflake on your app now show a raindrop for next Tuesday, I am here to tell you not to fret… yet. Even with the good showing of the GFS Model since its upgrade last month, there is a history of wobbling or flip flopping in this time frame.  Below is a look at that model’s timeline. But first I want to compare the split between the GFS and Canadian Model for next Tuesday morning. Please see more notes below:

Screen Shot2016-02-11 21_05_50

Why am I showing the Canadian Model now when I didn’t all winter?

I loved the Canadian Model the last two snowy winters, because it performs best in cold patterns. Early this winter, El Nino and the warmer side of the jet stream dominated. Thus, the Canadian didn’t do well.  But after the Polar Vortex passing by northern New England this weekend, it might be the situation it was born to analyze best.

Trend continues west, but when will it stop?

Last night I mentioned the trend of the GFS Model to continue to pull west with this storm. But also that a few coastal events have ended up farther west than expected, and that it might show rain on the next run. That is what happened today, and it has caused despair for some hard core snow lovers.  Here is what I wrote last night and I left the ( ? ) question openLastNightPost

So what’s the deal?

  • This weekend: Near record cold (but not the purpose of this post)
  • Monday: Light snow
  • Tuesday: Faith in the Flakes or Freezing Rain. Snow and or icing. Rain, however a good best near and east of the Chesapeake Bay.
  • Personally I think we will see more fluctuation in the modeling. This track below will not be the final solution
  • Arctic air, especially with snow pack, will not retreat as quickly as shown below.
  • Atmospheric Memory:  There is a spot off of the set coast that many recent storms continue to pass. It has been on display with two explosive coastal storms that clipped the coastal areas. I believe the storm will trend back east, thus colder for us.
  • Ice: The ground will be frozen. Even if we have snow to rain transition shown below, there will be a period of freezing rain that will be tough to break on Tuesday morning.
  • Ice: Should the track not be far enough east, the cold air will likely hold longer and lead to freezing rain or sleet Tuesday morning
  • Wrap Around Snow:  We often miss out of much wrap around (the snow behind the storm as it passes northeast). This is due to downslope winds from the mountains drying out.  But this version on the GFS storm track shows plenty o energy to push a burst of snow with the return of freezing air Tuesday night.

SEE THIS STORM TIMELINE WITH CAUTION

I do not believe this will be the final solution.

(slider–>)




Final Notes:

Once again, this is why I do not give snow potential too far in the future.  There will be some snow Monday, but Tuesday is in question all based on the storm track. Any adjustment back to the east will hold temperatures lower.  So I would not put too much credit in forecasts on apps.  There is a lot more detail than can be explained with icons. You may find plenty more info in other blogs than I am offering now. I will continue to expand on more details as we get closer.

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February 11th, 2016|Tags: , , , , , |