February 10 – If you have not heard yet, the coldest air of the season is on the way this weekend and it may rival the record cold we had last February. With that there is a lot of energy in the atmosphere that will brings multiple chances of snow on the arrival and as it departs. Here is a quick look at how it should play out. But please keep in mind: It is TOO EARLY to ask about snow amounts. I never suggest that more than 48 to 72 hours ahead of time since the storm next Tuesday has not even formed yet. Also, I am trying to stay ahead of model bias and atmospheric memory.
Quick Outlook (maps and details below)
- Tonight (flurries/snow showers). A snow cluster is moving through southern MD already.
- Thursday Afternoon/Evening (snow showers)
- Friday Night/Saturday (burst and squalls with arctic air)
- Monday (light)
- Tuesday (potential larger storm)
First Up: Snow Showers
The band of snow swinging through southern Maryland this evening is just one signal that the atmosphere is primed and ready. There will be more coming down from the north. The best way to track this is to look at the upper level energy around 18,000 Ft aloft at the 500mb level. There is spin, or vorticity in the jet stream that helps surface air to rise and produce showers. I’ve showed this before and it works out much better then looking at simulated radar. Here are the main snapshots I want to point out:
Saturday Morning Squalls: Arrival of the arctic air
This may drop a quick inch or two. Worth watching Friday Night into Saturday. We will have flurries and snow showers continue off and on all day Saturday a temperatures fall into the teens by afternoon.
Arctic Air: Polar Vortex
I discussed this last night. The core of the arctic circulation and cold air will be diving into northern New England. Locally our high temperature for Saturday will be at midnight. We should drop into the teens during the afternoon. For more on the cold air, click here:
Snow Storm Next Week?
Often as a monster cold blast like the Polar Vortex US visit, we get a storm along with the lifting of the jet stream. Here is the GFS Model showing it with a very familiar set up. The pattern this past month has been one storm arriving from the west and fading as a new one forms along the coast. Here we see light snow on Monday (a day off of school anyway). Then a secondary Low forms along the Carolina coast. Miller B style event.
The GFS model has already caught on to it’s own mistake, pulling this farther west that the prior model. I want to see if this track holds, because any farther west and we could have warming with a rain intrusion issue. Here is the latest ‘suggestion