Winter Storm Warning Expanded To Southern PA

Winter Storm Warning Expanded To Southern PA

WinterStormWarningFebruary 8- A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for southern Pennsylvania from their National Weather Service Office in State College PA. This fits with the warning in central Maryland.  All other advisories are the same. WE are still waiting for The National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly NJ to determine what upgrade to give the northern Delmarva and metro Phildelphia.  Please keep in mind that my forecasts are my own, but I like to let you compare to outer sources. All watches and warnings come from the government- aka National Weather Service. It is designed to help, but sometimes can be confusing.   I want to clarify what this means, plus give an update on the forecasts model snow cast maps. I am staying with my snow cast, and you can see that map for comparison below.

Yes, many schools and businesses are likely to be impacted as a few inches of snow will be on the ground in the warning areas at daybreak Tuesday.

Winter Storm Warning:

  • 10 AM Monday through 6 AM Wednesday.
  • In Pennsylvania: Lancaster, York, and Adams Counties.
  • In Maryland: Harford, Baltimore (city and county), Anne Arundel, Howard, Carroll, Frederick, and northwestern Montgomery Counties.
  • Start as rain, changing to moderate snow by midnight. Snow most of Tuesday.
  • General 4 to 8 inches of snow (according to NWS). This overlaps with my forecast zones for 3″to 6″ and 5″ to 9″.

Winter Weather Advisory

  • Metro Washington and western Maryland.
  • General 1 to 3 inches of snow (according NWS). This is close to my zone for 1″ to 3″.

Winter Storm Watch

  • Southern Pennsylvania, northern Delmarva, metro Philadelphia.
  • This will be upgraded to an Advisory or Warning shortly. These areas are under the National Weather Service Office in State College PA or Mount Holly NJ.   It really is just their timing issue. They usually wait until later in their shifts to do their upgrades but adjacent to the Maryland Counties in the Warning can be confusing.

Simulated Radar

Notice the system now displaying what we’ve discussed for a few days: This will start as rain, then turn to snow and develop right on top of us.




GFS Model

Since the HRRR Model only went to early Tuesday morning, here is the GFS Model plots for the rest of the day. The main issue to keep in mind is where the energy sets up with the Deformation Zone. The GFS has the bullseye just north of Baltimore. The moderate to heavy snow is in dark blue.  Compare the total to that of the NAM/WRF and Canadian Models below

Screen Shot2016-02-08 12_32_57

 

Screen Shot2016-02-08 12_33_21

 

Screen Shot2016-02-08 12_33_13

 

Snow Totals (From Computer Model Forecast)

Also See: Just The Maps from NWS compared to my forecast

GFS Bullseye north of Baltimore in York PA

Screen Shot2016-02-08 12_27_13

 

Canadian Model has the bullseye northeast of Baltimore between Bel Air and Philadelphia

 

Screen Shot2016-02-08 12_26_22

 

 

NAM/WRF Model has the bullseye much smaller and closer to the Phildelphia with almost nothing over Baltimore

Screen Shot2016-02-08 12_27_50

 

My Snowcast

Screen Shot2016-02-08 05_34_16

 

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