Last Call For Snowfall: Monday Night Notes And Timeline

Last Call For Snowfall: Monday Night Notes And Timeline

Screen Shot2016-02-08 20_13_53February 8- The radar this evening looks like a scattered mess and temperatures are still warm. AS I’ve been saying for a few days, this will be a snow developing right on top of us. Tonight is the night! You might be questioning the Winter Storm Warning, but this is the time to rely on the physics of the atmosphere.  This may also be the time for kids and teachers to turn your PJ inside out, get a spoon under your pillow, flush some ice cubes (about 1/2 dozen), set chalk or white crayon on the window, and do your snow dance.  There is a good chance for school impact near Baltimore and into southern Pennsylvania. If you are in Anne Arundel Count or Washington, I think you have a 50% chance.  Good luck.

I’ve included the final snow maps from the regional National Weather Service Offices below to compare to my final call for snowfall.  First, here’s the HRRR Model timeline showing the overnight change and what the morning should reveal. Please see my notes and final snow maps below.




Notes:

Screen Shot2016-02-08 19_32_18It is important to keep in mind that temperatures will be cooling faster aloft, but may remains near or above freezing for a while. That is why I thought pre-treating the roads, after a warm day in the 40s would not help.

  • Snow changeover will gradually expand around midnight through 3 AM.
  • Temperatures will drop below freezing north of Baltimore
  • Temperatures will be close to or above freezing between Baltimore, Annapolis, and Washington.
  • Snow may mix with or remain rain near the Bay.
  • The snow line and stickage line might remain west and north of Annapolis.

Morning Expectations: Not the full event

  • Stickage with 1 to 2 inches on the ground north and west of Baltimore.
  • Slushy coating to 1 inch in Anne Arundel County north of Rt. 50.
  • Wet south of Rt 50 and Eastern Shore.
  • School Closings? Better chance northern Maryland and southern PA, as it will continue to snow most of the day.
  • Some counties along the Chesapeake Bay could have rain in one part and snow with stickage in another part just a few miles away.

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Snowfall Maps: Compare The Last NWS Maps to My Call For Snowfall

But first:

Check Out The Full Collection Of FITF Shirts And Snow Sticks

 

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My Morning Call For Snowfall is my Final Call

I am not changing anything. Let’s let the dice roll….

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