Two Storms Set Up Snow: First Look At Potential Totals

Two Storms Set Up Snow: First Look At Potential Totals

SundayMorningFebruary 7 – Superbowl Sunday starts with a super storm on the Carolina US coast. It’s actually snowing and accumulating in parts of eastern North Carolina this morning. This beast has prompted Gale Warnings up to the Mid Atlantic and is worth watch for two reasons. First, it will create a weakness in the atmosphere for another storm to follow during the week. Secondly, the trend has been for storms to slow down and hang back west. Remember last Friday’s event? I bring that up because as I show the GFS model below clearing the coast, I think snow may hang back west and could clip Delmarva Monday.  I’ve separated the second system in it’s own section below to identify how complex our snow set up will be. Also, there are snow totals from three computer models that vary a lot. I hope to make my first call for snowfall this afternoon before the Super Bowl festivities begin.

The main points I want to make here:

  • It will snow this week
  • Starts: Rain changes to snow late Monday
  • Main Event: Tuesday
  • Snow Showers Linger: Wednesday and Thursday
  • Cold Will Hold: Temps stay below average through next week

Storm 1: The Coastal (slider –>)

The trend has been for systems to slow down and stay west. This could clip Delmarva Monday morning.

*Note: If the coastal does hang back west, it would likely result in higher snow amounts with the next system. as it will keep the focus on our region and linger the following systems longer as well.

Set Up For Storm 2

Tuesday DeformationZoneThe clipper will fade and get stuck in the Great Lakes, but spawn a surface Low (or two) passing over Maryland and off the coast.  Think 3-D here: The surface Low off of the coast will not be strong and move away. But it will send moisture back to the upper Low and that will be responsible for our snow. It’s called a deformation zone, and sometimes referred to as a ‘pump and dump‘. It’s hard to see until it forms. But that pump off the ocean can focus or dump snow in a local area inland that can outdo models. That is why there is such a spread in the totals (shown below).

As we look at the GFS model with a closer look, this is the most aggressive with the deformation zone.

Storm 2: Deformation Zone (slider –>)

 

Before Looking At Snow Potential Maps… Are you ready to measure?

Snow Stick!

SnowStickMy friend Thatcher made these prototype snow sticks. He is offering official Faith in the Flakes Snow Sticks in three sizes and many colors:

  • 2 Ft- Snow Stick $8.25/each
  • 30 Inches- Blizzard Stick $9.75/each
  • 36 Inches – Drift Stick $11.25/each

We have the classic flake, Maryland,

but also Orange/Black and Purple/Black to support your favorite team.

The easiest way to do this is check out the Facebook Page for Signs By Tomorrow – Timonium and look for the contact info there.

I’d love to know what you think.

As for that snow..

 

SNOW POTENTIAL: NOT MY FORECAST

GFS- Most Aggressive (but look below at others snowing much less)

Screen Shot2016-02-07 05_31_33

 

Screen Shot2016-02-07 05_32_42

 

Screen Shot2016-02-07 05_33_37

 

Cold With Hold Into Next Week

Screen Shot2016-02-07 05_47_30

 

Faith In The Flakes: NEW LINK

See all of our shirt designs here: Due to high demand, here is a new link with many more options. You can change the color of each item when you select it. Thank you FITF

 

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

Chip KidWxDevicesGet the award winning Kid Weather App I made with my oldest son and support our love for science, weather, and technology. Our 3 year anniversary of the release and our contribution to STEM education is this November. It has been downloaded in 60 countries, and works in both temperature scales. With your support we can expand on the fun introduction to science and real weather.

 

Get you food delivered from places you want: I am happy to be able to share this offer with you. This is a business similar to one helped start with friends when I was in High School. Click here and use this code WEATHER 7 for $7 off your first order

 

Faith In The Flakes: NEW LINK

See all of our shirt designs here: Due to high demand, here is a new link with many more options. You can change the color of each item when you select it. Thank you FITF

ClassicFlakes

February 7th, 2016|Tags: , , , , , |