Snow Update: Friday Morning And Next Week

Snow Update: Friday Morning And Next Week

Radar at 540 AMFebruary 5- We got our snow to build back and the radar this morning looked pretty close to what the simulation showed last night. The big question has been stickage since temperatures are near or above freezing. This is a system that is producing its own cold air.  The heavier snow has been falling in southern and eastern Maryland, which has been enough to overtake the warmer ground. That has also dropped the local temps to freezing. So it’s be tough to pin down, but the Winter Weather Advisory will prove true with a few inches still likely in those heavier snow areas. Metro Baltimore and Annapolis is hit or miss with warming influence from the Bay another wrinkle to consider. This will gradually move out this morning, so the rough hours will be between 6 and 9 AM. See the timeline below.

Schools Closed in Maryland:

  • Queen Anne’s County
  • Talbot County
  • Caroline County
  • Calvert County
  • Dorchester County
  • Kent County

Schools Delayed in Maryland:

  • Anne Arundel County
  • Cecil County
  • St. Mary’s County

Because this system stayed back west, the next two will do that same. That does change the outlook and it looks more likely that we will get snow early next week. For now, I am sticking with the Sunday event skipping offshore, but Monday night and Tuesday show promise for accumulation. I’ve been showing this for a few days, but the ingredients have been disorganized. The western pull allows for the cold air to catch up to southern moisture. I’ve got a look at that below, but please see the notes as well.

Simulated Radar:

This is a morning event. Heaviest snow totals will be 1 to 3 inches on the eastern shore.  But this will be done by noon and there will be quick melting.

Winter Weather Advisory

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Storm Next Week:

Screen Shot2016-02-05 05_19_37I continue to stick with the GFS Model as it had been the best performer with our January events. Keep in mind, if the trend for systems to slow down and hang west, then the time frame still includes Tuesday, and the snow could accumulate more. But with the cold air pattern aloft, there will be more likelihood that what falls will be snow.

I NEVER suggest snow totals more than 72 hours ahead of an event. so the earliest to start the ‘guessing’ would be over the weekend.

Screen Shot2016-02-05 05_20_23

 

Developing Stormy Timeline:

There will be a central Low Pressure pushing well off of the coast, but a trough in the atmosphere will keep a wave nearby with a focus for lingering snow into Wednesday or longer.




 

Temperature Outlook:

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