Snow Timeline Update: Simulation Keeps Shifting West

Snow Timeline Update: Simulation Keeps Shifting West

Screen Shot2016-02-04 21_42_25February 4 at 9:45 PM – Every time I look at the latest short range high resolution radar, it keeps pulling the snow farther west. It doesn’t look like much on the map this evening, but it will develop right on top of us between 1 AM and 3 AM Friday.  We will get snow, but high intensity will be needed to overtake the warm ground and temperatures that may remain near or above freezing. Yes, it can snow with warmer air, thanks to very cold air producing the flakes at cloud level.

UPDATE: Friday morning snow delays and closings and look at next week’s snow.

This morning it looked like maybe flurries could skirt as far west as Annapolis or Baltimore. Now it appears the light snow pulls back past Frederick. This is all in response to the front on the coast stalling (as I mentioned earlier it fit the same reasoning the warm air never arrived yesterday and why the rain lasted longer). Now upper lever energy and cold air from the Great Lakes is puling this system back and more of us will wake up with snow.

Our latest Winter Weather Advisory map is below.  Before looking at the latest timeline, I want to remind you what I said in my last report: Temps will be marginal, so expect a slushy, sloppy snow. Plus the ground is still warm as evident in melting over 2 feet of snow this week. So some flakes will be wasted to cool the ground down. But the overnight snowfall will help your FITF

This will be heavy in the morning near the Bay to the coast. I-95 travel will be impacted.  I do expect school delays… and maybe more impact on the Delmarva where it will last all morning.  The top snowfall will be on Delmarva between Easton and  Dover. See the latest snowfall projection below.

Simulated Radar:

Rain is spreading north, and will expand back west to the mountains. I wanted to pick this up where it gets interesting… at 3 AM

 

 

Temperatures and Notes:

Screen Shot2016-02-04 18_06_53

  • Please keep in mind that this is NOT a repeat of our blizzard.
  • This will develop overnight into morning.
  • Ground temps are warm, air temps will be marginal.
  • There will be wasted flakes to melting.
  • Where: Light snow will reach Frederick, but by daybreak I would use roughly Rt 29 as a reference… and points east for the main travel concern.
  • This will be slushy and sloppy. More stickage on the grass and car tops. Some road will remain wet, but intense snowfall can overtake the temperature to allow it to lay and stay.
  • Quick melting after sunrise.
  • Even where the snow lingers late in the morning on the Delmarva, daylight will help melt snow on roads after 9 AM.

How Much?

Note: There will be more on the grass than roads… but what is on the roads will be slushy and wet.

 

Winter Weather Advisory

Screen Shot2016-02-04 17_57_00

Faith In The Flakes: NEW LINK

See all of our shirt designs here: Due to high demand, here is a new link with many more options. You can change the color of each item when you select it. Thank you FITF

ClassicFlakes

 

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February 4th, 2016|Tags: , , , , |