February 1 – Temperatures are starting the day between the mid 40s to near 50°F. That makes it easier for kids to head back to school after a week long post blizzard break. This afternoon, maybe not so great as rain will spread through the region in time for the commute home. Then watch the southern end of the Iowa/Midwest blizzard to hit us with a band of rain and storms. It will miss the Iowa caucus, but cause plenty of problems there on Tuesday, while Groundhog Day should start clear and dry here and in western Pennsylvania for Phil. There will be plenty of energy and mid level winds available to surge in warm air ahead of that storm. The record high on Wednesday February 3 is 66°F set in 1932. That will be challenged. The only change from last night’s report… The cold air might be delayed until next week. So I am holding off on the look at the next storm next weekend for now.
The rain should reach metro Baltimore between 1 and 3 PM, then last into the evening. The Eastern Shore will get it this evening and had it last a few hours longer into the night.
Groundhog Day: High Pressure should be located over central Pennsylvania. This would provide a clear sky in the morning for Punxsutawney Phil to see his shadow. It looks like he will support 6 more weeks of winter. It will return after the midweek storm. But that storm will make headlines, and perhaps answer the important question for us: If you live in Iowa and a blizzard is approaching, do you go shopping for Milk-Break-and Toiler Paper, or go to caucus?
There will be a blizzard hitting Iowa AFTER the caucus, will track to the Great Lakes. The trailing cold front will bring in strong winds which will translate to the potential for thunderstorms. Some severe weather will break out in the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and we will watch the upper level winds to translate that energy to storms for us on Wednesday. Also consider the melting snowpack to lead to possible flooding.
Severe Storm Potential
Tuesday will be the most active day. We will see how much energy will be left for us on Wednesday.
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