Rain Starts Off February Then Iowa Blizzard Brings Us Thunderstorms
January 31- On this night before much of central Maryland gets ready to go back to school after the post blizzard week off, we are in the midst of a thaw. Temps are well above normal, and a band of rain is heading our way Monday afternoon. This will be a set up where we watch the surface winds. Should we turn southeast, the rain will enhances once crossing the mountains. That shows up on the simulated radar below. Then next two events this week we focus on include Groundhog Day and the Iowa Blizzard that will lead to thunderstorms for us. Yes, the track has shifted to our west, keeping us on the warmer side. We could see a record high temperature on Wednesday before the storms hit.
This is quick post, so the images below and brief notes explain the set up and what to expect. Again, this is just for this week. Temps will cool down back to normal by next weekend.
Rain Monday: NAM/WRF Model
Notice the flare up of rain east of the mountains in the afternoon. If you washed your car, get ready for more salt from the melting and spray kicking up… and literally putting salt on the wound as it should hit for the drive time home in the afternoon.
Groundhog Day: High Pressure should be located over central Pennsylvania. This would provide a clear sky in the morning for Punxsutawney Phil to see his shadow. It looks like he will support 6 more weeks of winter. It will return after the midweek storm. But that storm will make headlines, and perhaps answer the important question for us: If you live in Iowa and a blizzard is approaching, do you go shopping for Milk-Break-and Toiler Paper, or go to caucus?
There will be a blizzard hitting Iowa AFTER the caucus, will track to the Great Lakes. The trailing cold front will bring in strong winds which will translate to the potential for thunderstorms. Some severe weather will break out in the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and we will watch the upper level winds to translate that energy to storms for us on Wednesday. Also consider the melting snowpack to lead to possible flooding.
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