January 31- We are about to close out the month with quiet weather, but it will not last long. There are a lot of changes on the way in the next few days… We can think of this whole season on a delay after the record warm December, why not have our January thaw in February? Tuesday morning: the all important Groundhog Day… But Wednesday will be the big warm up and the consistent pointing to mid or upper 60s is still the case. We may make a run at a record high temperature, but that will come with storms and possibly flooding from heavy rain AND snow melt. Then back to reality. That’s why I am starting with the temperature trend. Below are two sliders to slice different parts of the Wednesday storm. Beyond that, there will a few chances of snow.
Please see more notes below.
The record high temperature in Baltimore on Feb 3 is 66°F set 84 years ago in 1932. The return to 40°F or cooler next week is actually cooler than average temps.
Wednesday: Cold Front= Warm With Storms
Note that water flow will double from heavy rain and snow melt. Flooding is possible not only from blocked storm drains, but along streams, rivers, and by the Chesapeake Bay.
Mid Level Winds = Energy
The mid to late day timing will bring the top potential for storms to reach metro Baltimore/York/Washington/Annapolis. Then a big cool down to follow.
Weather Folklore:If winter brings thunder, the snow will follow in a week or under
Next Chances of Snow
There are a few chances for snow showers and perhaps a larger storm 10 days away… Before I touch on that…
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Snow Showers South
This wave of Low Pressure along the coast will bring some snow showers to the southern Chesapeake region, but more importantly it will crank up in eastern Canada. This should reinforce the blocking in the North Atlantic and help redirect the following storm track:
Clipper Next Weekend:
This is a day later than I recently showed, but Sunday snow showers possible is NOT the storm in question… It will also help to feed into the North Atlantic blocking pattern:
Storm Feb 8 to 10?
I normally don’t like to speculate on the something more than a week out. But I felt the need to at lest address this…. A storm that currently shows up on the GFS model that would track up the Ohio Valley. That is a storm track to our west and could start with snow and go to rain. But let’s net speculate specifics this early. What I want to suggest are two things:
The timing is subject to change. The El Nino charged southern branch jet stream should be faster…
Should the blocking pattern reestablish in the North Atlantic, that would push the system farther south. That would push the track to a colder track for us, and could bring more wintery weather.
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