Snow Total Outlooks From Models and NWS

Snow Total Outlooks From Models and NWS

Screen Shot2016-01-21 18_08_41Now that we have a Blizzard Warning and State of Emergency in place, many schools closed or closing early, and even Garth Brooks cancelled his weekend shows, it’s time to get down to business. The track of the storm is nearly perfect for a Washington/Baltimore hit. Throw in a full moon and I think we get the top possible impact from the storm. Below is a collection of various commuter models and projections from the National Weather Service. I will have more on the wind and other updates in my next post.  FITF

Timing the first flakes is still iffy. There was a hint today that it might be a few hours sooner. I want to see if that trend holds on the overnight models and some nowcasting, before I make any changes. But this remains a Friday night to Sunday morning event. Saturday will be the worst!

This NWS product has Baltimore first flakes around 5PM. That is 2 hours earlier than my latest call. There is some wiggle room, and I will make a final issuing Friday morning.

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See State of Emergency and Blizzard Warning

The top question still is about how much snow we will get.  In short, it will snow a lot. We could classify categories by a lot, crazy, and redonkulous! But many people I’ve spoken to agree that once over 12 inches, it’s just a matter of how tall you can build the snowman. Below as a collation of various computer models and the National Weather Service projections. I want to say for the record, that it will snow Friday night and last through Sunday morning. Many of us will get over a foot in central Maryland, less near and east of the Chesapeake Bay with warming from the bay that will mix over to sleet or rain. But even there it will end as snow.

How Much Snow?

This is not my forecast, just the latest computer models and inside maps from NWS

GFS- Pushed the heaviest snow north of Baltimore

Snow GFS Model

 

NAM/WRF Model Close to the bullseye (Bulls Eye) location on my map

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The Canadian Model has the snow suppressed farther south

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National Weather Service Projection

Note this is only the Baltimore/Washington coverage area. That office covers their counties alone. That is why you don’t see numbers for southern Pennsylvania or Delmarva.

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Compare to My recent snow forecast

 

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