First Call For Snowfall: Weekend Jan 22 to 24

First Call For Snowfall: Weekend Jan 22 to 24

WedAmWeatherMapJanuary 20- We are now two days away from out first winter storm and it will be beast! now that the energy he will develop the storm (that has not fully formed yet) is entering the Pacific Northwest, there will be more data feeding into the computer models to help fine tune the track, timing, and intensity. The most consistent Model has been the GFS and I am sticking with it. But it has support from The Canadian, and the Euro (which came back north in the last run). There is clipper on the map as well, which should weaken, but bring in snow showers and a possible dusting this evening and tonight.

The storm will be arriving a little later.  This is because the system will reform a little farther south, then nearly stall off the coast Saturday. Think of it as a giant ladle dipping into the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic to scoop up more moisture. There will be a full moon this weekend. That will bring destructive tides to the coast, but can also enhance the storm. We will get hit HARD! Blizzard conditions with this Nor’Easter means winds over 35 mph. Thundersnow is also possible during the day Saturday… Even the beaches will start and end with accumulating snow, but rain in between.

Time Frame: Later Friday- All Day Saturday- Ending Sunday Mid Day

Below are my first call projections to help you answer some questions. This includes

  1. Arrival timeline
  2. Storm Track And Outlook
  3. My First call for snowfall. This is my high confidence low number. I’ve added a + to highlight the upside potential. I use a low number here to account for any change and what the minimum snow should still pile up.
  4. The later GFS Model Simulation
  5. Model Snowfall Projections From the GFS and Canadian (which are much higher than my numbers since they give a total, not just a low number)

SnowArrival

 

SnowPotentialTrack

 

Snow_Firstcall

 




 

GFS Model Simulation

 

 

GFS Snowfall Projection

Snowfall_GFSModel

Canadian Model Snowfall Projection

SnowfallCanadian

Please check back for more updates and any fine tuning adjustments

Faith In The Flakes: Show Off You Pride As The Snow Arrives

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January 20th, 2016|Tags: , , , , , , |