Snow Storm Update: Still Strong But Still Some Questions

Snow Storm Update: Still Strong But Still Some Questions

Tuesday January 19 – This is when it gets interesting. There will be a strong winter storm at the end of the week with a potential for a major impact in the Mid Atlantic to the Northeast. For the past three or more days, the main weather computer models have been in agreement with an extreme winter storm as a big event. With such consistency, it is hard to avoid some of the language, but I have been hesitant to give snow amounts. The latest models have some variation, which justifies why I stand by not giving my first call for snowfall until 2 days before the event.  Also why the general ‘mid day Friday’ arrival is broad, but specifics still need to be worked out.  Plan on conditions getting worse later into Friday and at night…

This morning I showed a few snow totals from those models for reference, but I will hold off my first call for snowfall until Wednesday morning. Here is why and please read below for notes and the actual model maps. If you think back the story of the Three Bears, I stand with Goldilocks for now that the one in the middle is ‘just right’.  For now…

StormTracksCompared_A

 

The GFS Model is holding strong and consistent, with one change…. It is slowing down the storm after it arrives, lingering it longer into Sunday morning.

The Canadian Model also brings it in around the same time Friday: Metro Baltimore around lunchtime, then metro York, PA in the afternoon.

But the European Model is now slows it down before arriving, which keeps it farther south. Still a moderate hit to Baltimore and York, but the really heavy stuff stays south. That would bring the bulk of the snow into southern Maryland and southeast Virginia. That is- IF – this solution is correct. Again, such little wiggle room for a big change.

Compare the Models:

GFS (American)





 

Canadian GEM

Screen Shot2016-01-19 14_20_34

European ECMWF

Screen Shot2016-01-19 14_22_12

 

So what should you think now?

Still plan for a major winter storm.  I would not get bogged down in details until Wednesday. In general:

Start Time: Friday!

  • Morning inVirginia and West Virginia
  • Mid day around Baltimore
  • Early to mid afternoon near York/Lancaster PA
  • Late afternoon or evening in New Jersey

Snow or Rain

  • Don’t get caught up on a foot or more at this time. Moderate to Heavy Snow means you will shovel and roads will be covered.
  • Rain- Likely in southern Maryland, Delmarva/Beaches, southeast VA. But Should end as snow with a few inches.

 

Please check back for more details… This is still subject to slight changes in timing. Amounts… Still not locked in. That is why I will give my first call for snowfall Wednesday morning.

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