Bitterly Cold Today, Big Snow Storm Timeline Starts Friday

Bitterly Cold Today, Big Snow Storm Timeline Starts Friday

WindChillAdvisoryJan18Tuesday January 19 – There has been an abrupt change in our winter with the cold extreme weather. This is setting the stage for a big snow storm at the end of the week. While that is the main event, I don’t want to dismiss the weather leading up to it, such as the Wind Chill Advisory we still have in place this morning. Below is a quick breakdown of what to expect, the initially timeline of the snow storm, which looks like a major Nor’Easter, and some computer model snowfall projections. I will make my first call for snowfall on Wednesday.

I need to start by correcting a mistake I made two days ago. While trying to NOT overplay the hand dealt, I said this would NOT be an Epic storm. All signs are actually pointing to it being exactly that: Epic!

Faith in the Flakes- But still have some caution when you see the early model snow totals.

Today: Wind Chill Advisory

  • Morning: Low teens, wind chill below 0°F
  • Wind Warnings At Area Bridges This Morning!
  • Winds gust 20 to 30 mph through this afternoon
  • Highs: Mid 20s, but feeling like close to 10°F

Wednesday Evening: Clipper Snow Showers

There is a clipper, not well organized, and the bulk of the energy passes to our north Wednesday afternoon/evening. Usually the showers break apart across the mountains with this set up, but there could still be some reaching us. But this upper level map also shows the energy leaving Colorado that will build into our big storm as it dives southeast.

Screen Shot2016-01-19 06_00_42

Major Winter Storm

Upper Level Energy

Screen Shot2016-01-19 06_01_41

 

Winter Storm Timeline:

At this point, there has been consistency in the modeling for at least 3 days. So the chances of this happening as seen is 80%, but still some wiggle room on timing:

  • Arrival: By Noon Friday
  • Heavy Snow: Afternoon Friday Through Noon Saturday 
  • *This could impact schools and work, even before it starts*
  • Southern Maryland/Delmarva: More Rain Friday, Ends With A Few Inches Of Snow Saturday
  • *Long Duration Event= Heavy Snow Totals
  • Large Impact On Travel
  • Sunday: Storm Will Be Gone, Main Roads Should Be Passable

Storm Track




Snow Totals???

This is the Epic Part of the event… but still just POTENTIAL

I do not like to give my first call for snowfall until 72 Hours/3 Days ahead at the earliest.  I saw Ava Marie on WBAL this morning show a snowfall projection map and remove the numbers. She said she doesn’t want to be misleading. I agree and commend her for being responsible!  The only reason I am showing these maps is because there has been so much chatter, I want to show them with the disclaimer and hope if you read what I write here can take that in accordingly.

I will make my ‘first call for snowfall’ on Wednesday (tomorrow)

GFS Model

Screen Shot2016-01-19 05_34_45

Canadian GEM Model

Screen Shot2016-01-19 05_36_41

European Model:

Truth be known, it is a violation of the copy-write to show Euro maps online without a formal license. That is why I have not shown comparable maps. But also, this product shows more snow than GFS and Canadian. It is well overdone and I don’t agree with it.  Still, some large numbers have been seen here and a lot to think about for a few days.

Please keep checking back for more specific details and analysis as we get closer to storm day(s)

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