This morning started off damp yet again. We had some drizzle and light rain overnight, and this is nothing new. Thanks El Nino! The rain on the way later today looks interesting on the modeling. It shows the shift of wind direction as first the moisture is seen coming off of the Atlantic, from the east, then the dominant flow from the main storm comes in from the south. The heaviest rain is still set for overnight into Sunday morning, but the showers might linger into the afternoon. Not a washout, as some improvement will be seen by lunchtime.
Cold air: It is on the way and it will hold beyond net week! The extreme weather is about to shift to the cold side, but most of it will be more typical winter weather. Yes, there might be flurries Monday, but the main event in my forecast will be Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Quite a few people have asked me why I am so confident when then don’t see this forecast from outer sources. The main reason is the upper level energy. I have been showing the vorticity or spin aloft at 500mb. That is the jet stream at around 18,000 feet above the surface. This product from the GFS is one of my favorites and very reliable. The reflection on the surface maps doesn’t show up. But it is starting too. This is a clipper type event, so not a lot of moisture, but there should be enough for many west of the Bay to get some stickage. Near the Bay and the Eastern Shore is something I’ll sort out closer to the arrival. The timing window is still late Tuesday into Wednesday. FITF
Rain Timeline Slider –>
Watch for the change in wind direction with movement of showers, then heavy rain.