December 31 2015- With the new year closing in after 10 days with rain, just getting the fog to lift and some peaks of sun would be an accomplishment. We are getting that, and weather tonight will be uneventful as the colder winds build in and drop us from the 40s into the 30s at midnight. But as normal winter temperatures arrive, the snow lovers are looking for any chance of seeing the flakes fly. There are two chances for snow, but I want to add a disclaimer for each. So here is some hope, but not a promise, especially with the second event next week.
Snow Showers With Arctic Push
After a quiet weather weekend, there will be a brief arctic blast early next week as the new year takes hold. This surface map shows the Lake Effect Snow showers that will spill southward with that push of colder air. The question is how far south it will make it. Models have a hard time depicting this a few days ahead of time.
For a better idea of getting some snow to fall, even if it does not accumulate, I like to look at the upper level energy for support. Here is the timeline for the vorticity at 500mb. That is the spin aloft, the energy that allows the air to rise and enhance showers or storms, especially to survive a trip over the mountains. Notice the brighter colors with the leading edge of arctic air. That vort max will swing through Monday evening/night as it organizes, which looks like it will carry snow showers into southern Pennsylvania and central Maryland. As for stickage, let’s not go there yet. This is just about anything falling.