New Year Weather: Snow Chances First Week

New Year Weather: Snow Chances First Week

December 31 2015- With the new year closing in  after 10 days with rain, just getting the fog to lift and some peaks of sun would be an accomplishment. We are getting that, and weather tonight will be uneventful as the colder winds build in and drop us from the 40s into the 30s at midnight. But as normal winter temperatures arrive, the snow lovers are looking for any chance of seeing the flakes fly. There are two chances for snow, but I want to add a disclaimer for each. So here is some hope, but not a promise, especially with the second event next week.

Snow Showers With Arctic Push

After a quiet weather weekend, there will be a brief arctic blast early next week as the new year takes hold. This surface map shows the Lake Effect Snow showers that will spill southward with that push of colder air.  The question is how far south it will make it. Models have a hard time depicting this a few days ahead of time.

lake effect snow new year January 4

For a better idea of getting some snow to fall, even if it does not accumulate,  I like to look at the upper level energy for support. Here is the timeline for the vorticity at 500mb. That is the spin aloft, the energy that allows the air to rise and enhance showers or storms, especially to survive a trip over the mountains. Notice the brighter colors with the leading edge of arctic air. That vort max will swing through Monday evening/night as it organizes, which looks like it will carry snow showers into southern Pennsylvania and central Maryland. As for stickage, let’s not go there yet. This is just about anything falling.

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Temperatures

The brief arctic blast is reflected here in the GEFS Ensemble temperature forecast for the first week of the new year.

new year temperatures

Storm Next Weekend? Please read first:

Honestly, I do not like to show surface maps more than a week ahead of time. So much can change, especially the timing and location of systems before they get to this point.  With that caveat, I am showing this because many people have asked about it. Also, I will refer back to this post as we get closer to next weekend to see if there is any validity.

I will not say a storm is on the way next weekend. My gut at this point is suggesting the coastal Low will pass farther east, but so will the inland Low. There will be a supply of colder air from Canada, so I think some result of wintry precipitation is possible, even if it doesn’t look like these maps. I am broad brushing it with a wider window of Friday to Sunday for ‘something’. But yes, it is nice (as a snow lover) to see something possible on the horizon.

Again… This is the GFS Model projection and I do not think the result will be exactly like this:

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I will refer back to this as we track any changes with the cold air and pattern change in the new year, so I hope you will check back and join me.

Faith In The Flakes: It Will Snow… Eventually

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December 31st, 2015|Tags: , , , , |