The deal about snow showers and flurries this weekend

The deal about snow showers and flurries this weekend

Screen Shot2015-12-17 20_43_44Snow! There, I said it and it will be a reality, for just a day or two, but it’s something for winter lovers to keep their hope. Winter is not a lost cause, by any stretch. I’ve shown the stats about how a snowless December does not indicate how the rest of winter will go.  But getting snow this weekend needs some explaining.  First, the Lake Enhanced snow showers are slated for the mountains. They need it! Snowshoe, Wisp, and Seven Springs will a taste of winter but maybe an inch or two can be expected. So if you want to see stickage, you will have to take at least a three to five hour car ride west of Baltimore. But what about getting some flakes to fall locally? It is possible. Here’s why:

The upper level energy is needed to help any moisture survive over the mountains and possibly drop flakes farther east. These maps below show the vorticity, or spin showing that energy at the 500mb level, which is roughly 18,000 feet above the ground. This cloud level energy can be identified as long streaks than can enhance the plumes off of the Great Lakes. Also clusters known as a vort max is more concentrated and can pulse snow showers and squalls. Check out the Friday to Saturday flow aloft:

 




 

There will be a supply of energy passing over central Maryland after midnight Friday into Saturday morning, but ending by afternoon. It is possible this can carry some flakes, which is enough to remind us that there is a winter. But do not expect anything more than flurries. Temperatures will stay in the 30s inland from the Bay, but only for a day. The warm up will build back starting Sunday.

There will be a storm warming us up for Christmas, but the pattern is starting to break down. I will explain more in the morning post.  This may end up the warmest December on record, but long range outlooks show a hint of winter changing to our favor around the New Year, and perhaps locking in during January.

Faith in the Flakes

 

Faith In The Flakes: It Will Snow… Eventually

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December 17th, 2015|Tags: , , , , |