How warm it may get today: December 13 record high

How warm it may get today: December 13 record high

SundayUpperLevelTempsThis is the day when the warmest air of this record pattern is supposed to arrive. Thanks to severe storms in the southern plains, many get to wear shorts at the Ravens game! That active weather is the result of the contrast of warm and cold forces, and the warm air gets pushed our way. All week I was aiming for 70°F, which would break 126 year old record 69°F set in Baltimore on December 13, 1889. But considering that we reached 71°F yesterday (12th), the question now is how warm can it get.  The average high temperature today 46°F, so starting the day at 50°F already places us above normal. So, will we get the record,  and if so how warm will it be?

Here is a look at a few computer models forecasting today’s high.I want to point out that there is a lot of climatology in the modeling, which can weigh it down. That is one reason we often end up warmer than first thought. The models have the average of 46°F included in the calculations for how warm it can get today. We should also consider the amount of sun vs cloud cover as well as wind direction can be a factor. If you live near the chillier Chesapeake Bay, that will hold your temperatures down. For example, at 2 PM Saturday when Baltimore hit 70°F, Annapolis was 54°F at the US Naval Academy.

Also see: December Record High Temperature Days Come In Groups

GFS Model Forecast:

Screen Shot2015-12-13 09_19_38

GFSX Model Forecast

Screen Shot2015-12-13 09_19_55



GEFS Ensemble

A brief return to average temperatures next weekend….

 

GEFSModelTemps

 

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This year, we were expected to reach 70F all week, but that was meant to occur on Sunday. So with a warmer day expected tomorrow, we shall likely have another two-for record setting warm mark in the record books. Doubling of warm records is actually somewhat common. I will expand on that in my next post.[/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]

December 13th, 2015|Tags: , , , , , , |