Earlier today I wrote about the record El Nino warm water temperatures in November. I followed up with a discussion with a local ski resort. As much as I love snow, and have no shame in hiding it, I also have a responsibility to clients that rely on winter for their business. We’ve been spoiled in recent years. In fact the past two years the local ski resorts opened just after Thanksgiving. Now in the first week of December, it’s hard enough to get cold enough air to make snow. So what I am about to show you is a little more detailed than the last chat I had today with my two boys. This December weather outlook is what is it and we have some waiting to do.
For starters, I want to show a few snapshots of the jet stream over the next two weeks. Here is a look at the heights of the 500mb level. This is translated to the temperature aloft, as warm air expands and would be higher, while colder air compresses and would be lower. In general this is around 18,000 ft above the ground. Notice the cold pocket that arrived today, doesn’t stay long. We return to a warmer than average pattern that will be tough to break for a while.
There is not much hope for snow locally through mid month. Even the coastal next week has a cool pocket of air, but not cold! That is going to be a rain maker. I pointed that out earlier for the track. Following the progression and possible model errors can the end result may help with real winter event over the next few months. But that last image does show potential hope for a little change that might bring something around the corner we can’t see between Christmas and New Years. Overall, this fits with my Winter 2015-2016 Winter Outlook: The second half of winter has more promise than this start.
Temperatures Through Mid December:
This is a translation of the temperatures we can expect in Baltimore at BWI. I don’t usually show the full extent, as I don’t like to show forecast past 7 days due to variability and the chaos theory. But The next warm up, could push 60F mid month. Warm ups can often end up warm than expected… and as you can see there is NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT!
This temperature outlook shows a 65% chance that our region will be above normal. That is easy to gather with the next few weeks as shown above, even if the rest of the month returns to average. But this can be deceiving. It does NOT elaborate that there could be some cool surges at the end of the month.
This shows that the classic El Nino push across the southern and eastern US. Basically the active pattern we have seen should continue, but most of those events will be wet.
Before you fellow snow lovers get completely depressed, this is an average for the entire month. I am confident most of the next two weeks will remain near or above normal with temps. Any chilly days will likely be dry. But the last week to 10 days of December is open season still and subject to change. However, the if the warm pocket of El Nino waters do push farther west, it will allow the arctic build up to drop farther south January and February. You can work with us to keep that ‘faith in the flakes’ alive and show off your snow pride. We can use all the help we can get.
Holiday Spirit Giveback: Faith in the Flakes Christmas Shirts
My boys and I are rocking our shirts from last year and believe we will see snow this month. It might be hard to imagine with this stretch of rain. We want to spread the joy in a new way. Among the new styles, we have holiday or Christmas colors, and waiting for ours to be printed. We thought it would be great if families would wear these together to open gifts under their trees. In appreciation for your support, we will be using 20% of the proceeds of these holiday shirts to purchase winter coats for kids and donating them before Christmas. The collections from this design will be added up through Dec 21 (official start of winter).
We know Hanukah is this weekend, and there are other holidays you may celebrate. This is the most universal.
Get the award winning Kid Weather App I made with my oldest son and support our love for science, weather, and technology. Our 3 year anniversary of the release and our contribution to STEM education is this November. It has been downloaded in 60 countries, and works in both temperature scales. With your support we can expand on the fun introduction to science and real weather.