Rain Arrives Late Today, Most Tuesday: Timeline

Rain Arrives Late Today, Most Tuesday: Timeline

MonAMMonday starts off clear and cold. In fact below freezing north and west of Baltimore may have frost on your windshield and perhaps a little ice on the elevated decks and steps.  But sunshine will warm us up quickly and expect a mostly dry day.  However, the large and strong southern storm will push north the battle between this dry air will engage.

Last night I wrote about the models not agreeing on the arrival. Here is an update to the aggressive NAM model that has broken the rain arrival this evening to showers, and the push of heavier rain Tuesday morning.  But the high resolution HRRR Model is trying to push in the leading edge into Washington by 3 PM and Baltimore by 6 PM. I still think the dry air will hold a little longer, but some of this system will try to move in after sunset (4:57PM) for sure. Still plan for the wet day to be Tuesday.  So bring the umbrella or light rain jacket today, but odds are that you won’t need it unless you live in southern Maryland or Virginia.  As for the temperatures, we get one last mild week, but reality by Friday and the weekend with a return to the 50s.

Radar Simulations

HRRR MODEL

 

 

NAM MODEL

Rainfall Total Per Day: NOAA

qpf_24hr_24

 

qpf_24hr_48

 

qpf_24hr_72

 

Temperatures

 

Screen Shot2015-11-09 06_25_27

 

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November 9th, 2015|Tags: , , |