If you live near the water or in the hills, you may have experienced the wind driven rain already. Those exposed areas fell the southeast flow that has enhanced the rain and filled in the radar this morning. Since the delay of the rain last night and pockets earlier, some have questioned this storm and its potential. This post is to assure you there is more punch left and we might get the strongest hit this evening and tonight. So heavy rain and flooding along with strong or severe storm cells still possible. Winds will be steady in the 20 mph range, possibly stronger. Gusts in individual storms are likely to exceed 40 mph.
A large based storm like like with some tropical influence (remains of once Cat 5 Hurricane Patricia) can still produce severe weather. We look for vortices or spins at mid levels to focus that energy into individual cells or storm lines. This does not mean ‘tornado’, but spins that we also look for in winter events. The simulated radar below shows the strongest vort max swinging up I-95 this evening. That will produce locally heavy rain, and a reminder that 1 to 2 inches possible could lead to some flooding. The strongest winds will be to the east, and this translates to 30+ mph winds across the Bay and Delmarva. That is shown in the second slider below. The wind flow along the water is the reason for flooding on the Bay later today. High tide in Annapolis is around 7 PM this evening.