Hurricane Joaquin: State Of Emergency But Tracking East

Hurricane Joaquin: State Of Emergency But Tracking East

Screen Shot2015-10-01 22_26_04When news comes out of the central Bahamas in a few days, daylight will show devastation. The slow movement of a Category 4 storm overhead for more than a day can hardly be imagined. The evening flight path from the Air Force Recon storm mission has the pressure level slightly higher than the last update, but still a formidable 932 mb. The satellite image seems to show the eye that was developing has filled in, but it is early to say this past peaked. Winds are still 130 mph and it is a large storm. Hurricane force winds reach 50 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds are now 185 miles away.

Screen Shot2015-10-01 22_15_56While the central Bahamas are getting clobbered, Cuba has posted a Tropical Storm Warning (see more with the NHC Track Map below). This is more proof that this storm moved farther south than expected, which as a result will miss the first pull north. The irony with this is that Maryland just joined Virginia by posting a State Of Emergency, but the trend with the delay of the turn continues to push the forecast of Joaquin farther to the east. Governor Hogan said it was an effort in over caution, and it might just free up red tape for preparation. At this point it looks like a slim chance for an east coast impact for the Mid Atlantic, and might be a complete miss. So the rain we have now through Saturday has nothing to do with the hurricane and could be it. You can breath a sigh of relief, but don’t ignore the storm as nothing is set in stone.

SUMMARY From 800 PM EDT…
Screen Shot2015-10-01 21_36_26And Air Force Recon Flight Path Storm Measurements
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LOCATION…22.9N 74.5W

ABOUT 25 MI…45 KM ESE OF CLARENCE TOWN LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…210 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…931 MB…27.49 INCHES

 

Missing Or Dissing The Date

The East Coast landfall scenario was based on an upper Low digging into Florida and capturing Joaquin. Then pulling it back into the coast. This is similar, but in a different location, to what Sandy experienced. Two things to consider here with Joaquin:

  1. The storm is much stronger than expected
  2. The push farther south and delay in the turn northward.

Screen Shot2015-10-01 22_01_14

Reaching Category 4, Joaquin has a mind of its own. The pivot of the upper Low and hurricane is based on the Fujiwhara Effect.  This is when tropical systems will rotate around each other. But a much stronger Joaquin won’t play as well with others.  Secondly, the timing is off from a few days ago since the storm went farther south. So it will vein a different position allowing it to move farther off of the east coast.

Forecast Tracks

Screen Shot2015-10-01 22_35_54

 

 

I want to put in writing on my own web site that I am amazed by the abrupt adjustment from potential Chesapeake Bay track two days ago to perhaps a miss. But this all goes back to today and the turn to the north. That delay changed the timing and interaction with other weather features. The net result is a dramatic adjustment in the expectation into early next week. So is the life of tracking tropical systems. Blame it on El Nino? Blame the modeling? The European Model did abandon the east coast hit first, but so far it is not exactly correct either.

 

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WATCHES AND WARNINGS 

——————–

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the

Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

  • Central Bahamas
  • Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
  • Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
  • The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

  • Bimini
  • Andros Island

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

  • Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and
  • Caicos Islands
  • Andros Island
  • Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo

 

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.

 

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

 

Tropical Links

2015 Atlantic Storm Names and Forecast

History of naming Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

Tropical Storm Formation: Origin Maps For Each 10 Days Of Season, Video

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