Joaquin A Hurricane: Warning Bahamas, East Coast Standby

Joaquin A Hurricane: Warning Bahamas, East Coast Standby

Screen Shot2015-09-30 08_34_53The National Hurricane Center has upgraded the status of Joaquin to a hurricane. Winds are 75 mph and it is expected to get stronger. Hurricane force winds extend 30 miles form the center, tropical storm force winds reach 125 miles away.  The track is drifting to the southwest and warnings have been posted for the Bahamas where 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected. But NHC states San Salvador and Rum Cay could get up to 15 inches of rain by Friday. Note that our flooding last night came from only 4 inches.

Then it will make a turn to the north. The timing of that turn, plus the intensity of the storm will determine the path beyond that. But models seem to continue to show an east coast landfall or impact.

Below is the latest update, but there are new computer models generating right now. So I am not posted the old ones here. You can get an idea from my post last night of the cluster projecting an east cost impact or landfall. I will update as soon as they are available.

 

From the National Hurricane Center

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION

  • LOCATION…24.9N 72.2W ABOUT 245 MI…395 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
  • MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS.. 75 MPH…120 KM/H
  • PRESENT MOVEMENT…SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
  • MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…971 MB…28.67 INCHES

Air Force Recon Flight:

Mission traversing the storm this morning showing the flight level winds.

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Visible Satellite

The storm looks healthy, compared the the wind sheer it had yesterday. The central circulation is underneath a lot of deep cloud over and convection (storms). This is the self sustaining heat engine of a tropical system. As long as it has plenty of warm water, which it does… It will maintain or keep growing stronger. This should reach Category 2, perhaps up to Category 3 (major hurricane with 115 mph+ winds) this weekend.

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Forecast Track plus

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

Note that there is a wide margin of error. But even NHC has shown the recurving towards the Mid Atlantic coast. There has only been one direct landfall on Maryland in over 100 years. the track of Isabel which is being referenced a lot now, was unique but devastating as that passed south of Maryland dragging the water at full force up the Chesapeake Bay. If this curves to make landfall, it would be worse for Maryland if it passes south or overhead. But better for us if it was north. Keep that in mind.

Screen Shot2015-09-30 08_31_27A Hurricane Warning is in effect for… * Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for… * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

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