It will rain this week! That is a guarantee, but there are two separate events. The first starts Tuesday. The second relates to the Atlantic Ocean where The National Hurricane Center has identified Tropical Depression 11 well off the southeast coast. This is poised to ride up the coast as Tropical Storm Joaquin. That will be a fun one for newscasters and meteorologists on TV to pronounce. But it will be difficult to deal with as it will likely be tightly wrapped on the coast. So many factors have to come together across the ocean for Tropical Depression 11, that is it nearly impossible to pull off a full impact event, let alone call it perfectly this early. So a lot like the movie (Oceans 11), but not a pretty as George Clooney. Sorry ladies.
I must remind you that just this past weekend we had expected a coastal storm to develop, and it did. But north of Ocean City it remained dry instead of the Sunday soaker. So be weary of modeling many days out. However, this should turn tropical, and that itself will bring major beach erosion, and perhaps serious flooding in New York if the current track holds. But I want to tackle these two events separately.
Event 1: Mid Week Rain
This is a cold front with the tropical air that we felt arrive today. This slider of the GFS model does something similar to that we’ve seen over the past few months. A new Low Pressure tries to form overhead along the front. That will enhance the rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.