Possible Tropical Development: Still A Week Away, See Fine Details

Possible Tropical Development: Still A Week Away, See Fine Details

There is a buzz about a tropical-like system forming next week.  I do not want to feed into any anxiety, especially for those in Ocean City that have had a rough round of storms this past week.  But I do want to show you what the chatter is about, so you can see how far away it is and what could change.  That is the important thing: It is a week away and steering currents let alone the system itself can change. Note, it has not even formed yet! Below is a quick run down, and please keep in mind that for a tropical storm to form, it must be over warm water. That might not happen here, but the moisture could still bring some heavy rain in its path.

Screen Shot2015-07-25 15_18_05A return to summer heat and humidity this weekend, plus the notion of a little heat wave during next week is par for the course. I am jumping ahead to the cold front that will push through our region on Thursday and stall along the Gulf Coast Friday.  A stalled front near water can develop tropical circulation. That means a warm core with heavy storms.

But should that circulation stay over land, it missed the heat source from the warm  Gulf of Mexico water.  Comparing this to Tropical Storm Bill in June, that storm formed over the water and gained more strength before moving over land and reaching Maryland nearly a week later. It survived a long time, but had more to get it started.

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Now let’s strip the precipitation and just look at pressure and wind flow at 10 meters. This will make it easier to identify the core of this potential Low. Scroll through the maps here and see how the forecast path stays over land.  High Pressure south of Bermuda will move towards the US east coast and help steer the storm, keeping the path away from the water.  Close enough to pull in moisture, but not to intensity the winds.  At least how it looks now for next Friday through  Sunday. See the closer view below the slide show.




Closer View

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Here is the same view for Monday August 3rd, but adding the precipitation back in.  This is still more than a week away, so do NOT assume this is set in stone. I wanted to post this so we have a basis to compare to during the next week and track any changes in timing and track.

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Note: There have been 3 named storms so far this year. Ana, Bill, and Claudette. Should this form over water and gain enough strength to get named, the next one on the list is Danny.

I will never make a sure forecast this far away. However, if you have plans for the beach, just allow a window from next Sunday to Tuesday for this storm to have some impact.  But at this point, with the track over land, it looks like more of a rain maker than wind machine. That might be all that matters for vacationers, but may put property owners at a little more ease.

Check back for more updates on this daily.


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