July 13 radar simulation: Will showers shake off for Taylor Swift concert?

July 13 radar simulation: Will showers shake off for Taylor Swift concert?

Baseball is on a break for All Star Week, but Nationals Park in Washington is hosting the Taylor Swift 1989 World Tour. There is still a chance to get more than just drizzle for T Swizzle. Will it hit or miss? Can you just ‘shake it off’? Normally I would limit my mention of a specific event to a race or festival I might be involved with, but this concert was the overwhelming focus of the questions I got about today’s weather. There is a large severe storm threat this afternoon and evening that could hit Cincinnati and impact the Home Run Derby tonight, but locally the showers should be tame. Here is a quick look at the latest radar simulations, which do suggest at least some afternoon showers across Washington.

Also see  Severe Storm Risk: 2 Days To Track Trouble

Overview: 

There is a different between the two models shown here. The NAM has storms passing just west of Washington during the evening, but following the upper level winds from NW to SE.  The HRRR does bring a front through from south to north…then keeps it rather quiet for the evening.  Watching the early afternoon development will be best to track which has a better handle on the front nearby.

NAM/WRF

This model suggests a complex of storms passing just west of Washington during the afternoon and evening, with a push of storms overnight.

Short Range Model: HRRR

This short term model updated mid morning shows spotty showers around the start of the concert (5 PM). It should be noted that it is almost impossible to be 100% precise with these types of cells. This just gives a gauge that there will be showers around early, but most of the evening will be fine. Overnight and Tuesday, a different story.

Severe Storm Outlook Maps

See the full report here

 

SEVERE STORM SAFETY POSTS

 

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