There is no doubting that we are in a pattern that will repeat itself again. The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in another ‘risk’ area for severe storms Thursday. I must elaborate that the bulk of the energy will stay to our west, highlighted in the ‘enhanced’ risk region and that was similar to the set up we had Tuesday. The timing appears to be late evening and overnight, and could still carry storms with winds over 60 mph and large hail. I think the threat of tornadoes will be small if any. But dangerous lighting and even more rain is most likely. As I mentioned this morning, we are close to breaking the all time wettest June record in Baltimore dating back to 1972 and Hurricane Agnes. If it doesn’t happen tomorrow, Saturday will do it for sure. Both events could lead to flash flooding. Below are two radar simulations tracking each event. As for the pattern, the weekend once again looks most stormy Saturday evening and night, but clearing out Sunday.
Thursday Afternoon And Night
See more notes below
Note: This does analyze one main complex developing during the evening, then stalling in southern Maryland. That is where the front will reside for a day, but showers locally are still possible into Friday morning. The return of the rain for metro areas might be earlier on Saturday.
Note: The convergence zoen I highlighted Saturday evening and night is based on the alignment of the fronts and expected surface wind form the southeast. That tends to enhance the rainfall and storm expectation for metro Baltimore most of the time. The target lingers for what could be 4 to 6 hours of heavy rain and flooding.
while clearing on Sunday seems similar to Father’s Day, the afternoon temperatures are likely to remain in the mid 70s to near 80F, well below average.
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