Winter Storm And Blizzard Update Friday Night To Saturday
Friday January 28 2022
Night Update
At 10 PM, we can see the storm taking full form off of the East Coast. While it appeared to have formed a little west of the NAM forecast location, the track by our region is on target, so not much other that watch it do its thing.
This update shows conditions at 10 PM, and the radar simulation through Noon Saturday. I also included the forecast conditions at 8 AM in hopes this helps you plan for morning.
Surface Weather
This is very complex with the arctic air and clipper to our west, and a Double Barrel Low off the Coast. The combination and track is working out as planned for tonight.
Temperatures
Freezing temps spread to most of Maryland, and will reach the beach before midnight. Full on stickage and accumulation taking place.
Radar At 10 PM
It is hard for Doppler to track the fine flakes in the colder air, but there is light snow falling back to Frederick County. Just enough to lay and stay.
I noticed a deformation zone with enhanced snow banding just west of I-95 between Washington and Baltimore. This may help boost this region to the 2”+ snow category.
The main event it on Delmarva, where the Winter Storm Warning and Blizzard Warning will be justified with over 6″ of snow…
UPDATE:
Click To See: SATURDAY MORNING REPORT
Animation
Radar Loop 8 PM to 10 PM
*There is a long pause a the end of the loop. Wait for it to reboot….
Putting this in motion, we can see the development of those bands even better.
Also that region around the Bay filling in
Radar Simulation
NAM 3 Km Model —> slider
The back edge of the snow should take form shortly after midnight. That back edge will wobble a little back and forth around Baltimore… Then shift east AFTER 3 AM.
Eastern Shore will continue to get pounded at sunrise, then end by noon.
STORM ALERTS
- Blizzard is qualified by 35 mph sustained winds with snow rates of 1”/Hr or higher for 3 consecutive hours.
- Winter Storm Warnings: Snow likely over 5 inches
- Winter Weather Advisory: Snow likely ‘at least’ 1 to 3 inches.
Morning Conditions
What to expect around 8 AM
Temperatures
Wind Chill
Wind Speed
Wind Gusts
Snow Forecasts
Compare My Updated Call To Models and NWS Office Forecasts
New Computer Model Snow Data
American Models
NAM 3 Km
GFS
European ECMWF
Canadian GEM
Also See:
Model Snow Maps Below
Click For Page: NWS Regional Office Snow Forecast Maps
Faith in the Flakes!
*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
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ALSO SEE
What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow
ALL FITF GEAR
FITF THUNDERSNOW
Winter Outlook Series:
Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts
Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources
Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow
Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA
NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print
Signals For Early Start To Winter In November
Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip
Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern
Winter Folklore Checklist