October 1 Remains Of Ian Continue To Produce A Chilly Rain For Days

October 1, 2022

Saturday Morning Update 

Post Tropical Storm Ian is located between the border of North Carolina and Virginia.  It has transitioned to a Mid Latitude Low that is cut off from the jet stream. What that really means is this:

• The National Hurricane Center is stopping updates on it.
• Our weather is more like a chilly Nor’easter.
• This will be a slow mover and continue to produce rain for a few days.
• This report includes Live Radar and tracking this evolving weather system into next week.

Morning Satellite Loop

This is affecting the Mid-Atlantic to Southern New England.

Post Tropical Cyclone Ian

Quick Stats at 5 AM Saturday 

• Winds are 35 mph 
• Moving to the NNW 12 mph
• Minimal Pressure: 29.56 inches

Satellite Snapshot

In Case You Missed This…

Fort Myers Landfall Update: A person was in that floating house…

Morning Surface Weather

Low Pressure from what was once Ian will continue to spin out and keep the weather unsettled. Gusty winds will diminish as the day progresses while the heaviest rain is now streaming off the coast to metro New York. 

This Low Pressure is being blocked by High Pressure to the North, which will prevent it from moving much… It will crawl east to the coast and redevelop over the next few days.

Morning Temperatures

Look at the spread from lower 40s in the western Maryland mountains, most of the region in the 50s, then mid 60s to near 70ºF from Ocean City to coastal Virginia.

Radar Snapshot

Rain is pivoting to the Northwest around the Ian Remnant Low, while rain along the coast is pushing North.

LIVE RADAR

Rain Forecast Simulations: 8 AM to 8 PM

The good thing I see is agreement with the HRRR and NAM Models. They both continue to show the steady rain breaking up and holding together in the mountains.

Metro and coastal areas: Rain showers redevelop and linger through the day. We can’t spot specific times as the rain will be scattered on and off all day, with more numerous showers in the afternoon and evening.  You might still get lucky with a few dry hours at your location.

HRRR Model

NAM 3 Km Model

Wind Forecast Snapshots

Chilly breeze this morning, but winds ease during the day.

8 AM

8 PM

Temperatures

4 PM – It will be a chilly day to kick off October.

CLIMATE DATA

TODAY October 1

Normal Low in Baltimore:  53ºF

Record 36ºF in 1947

Normal High in Baltimore: 74ºF

Record 91ºF 1941

Average Frost And Freeze Dates in Maryland and Pennsylvania

Rain Forecast: 8 PM Saturday to 8 AM Tuesday

ECWMF Model

Watch the upper level Low generate more showers, then organize off the coast by Monday and Tuesday… when it finally pulls away.

Sunday Temperatures 

Morning 

Afternoon 

7 Day Forecast

We remain unseasonably chilly until that storm moves away. Then the sun will warm us back close to 70ºF later in the work week. 

PATTERN CHANGER?

Hurricane Ian May Help Cooler Pattern Change: Monitor For Atmospheric Memory This Winter

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 Through November 30

NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again

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