March 13 2023
Monday Night Update
A major winter storm is just starting to form off the East Coast and it will be a multi-day event. The heaviest snow will fall inland with some areas possibly getting over 2 feet. I DO NOT envy the forecasters between New York and Boston with a very complicated transition from rain to snow very close to the urban centers.
Here in The Mid Atlantic region, we have a Wind Advisory in place and will get some snow showers reaching into Northern Maryland by morning. In addition to showing that, I wanted to share the snow forecasts to our north because it will affect where I grew up. There will be a large contrast between New York City and The Hudson Valley. Heavy snow in Central New York between Cornell (Ithaca), where I went to school, plus my first two TV jobs were in Syracuse and Binghamton. The big winner may be the Catskill Mountains and central Massachusetts. Let’s take a look.
In any winter this would be a challenging forecast. With the poor computer model performance this season, it brings big BUST potential for snow totals. This could go either way, much higher or lower.
The reason why is the expectation for this Nor’easter storm to ‘close off’ from the jet stream and retrograde. That is why the movement turns to the West instead of East. Trying to time when and where the storm makes the turn, then how far West or Southwest it may reach is the breaking point.
The big cities of New York to Boston will start as rain, then expecting to finish as heavy snow. ‘Expecting’! Inland areas that remain all snow will exceed 12 inches, and have the potential to get over 2 Feet of snow with blizzard conditions. That means more than 1 inch of snow per hour for 3 or more hours, plus 35 mph winds. Yes, this will be the strongest east coast winter storm this season….
The Upper Level Low is forecast to pass north of Baltimore, near Harrisburg at daybreak. This will help bring in the cold air aloft and carry snow showers into Maryland.
The evening surface weather does look like this may be passing a little farther south. If so, more snow showers could reach metro Baltimore.
Radar Simulation Midnight to 8 AM
Often the snow showers that show up on this product under represent. So there may be more widespread snow showers… Most likely in northern Maryland near and NORTH of Baltimore. This includes Frederick, Carroll, Baltimore, Harford, and Cecil Counties.
If that Upper Low does pass farther south, we could see more snow showers across central Maryland.
The freeze will reach into central Maryland, while Teens will truly have a winter grip in the far western Maryland mountains.
This brings the bullseye of 34.8″ north of Springfield, MA. The complication is the sharp drop along the coast which may include I-95 along metro New York and southern New England.
This has a lower bullseye, but spreads the high snow zone farther west and south…
The big winners will be in the Poconos.
This is my old region from school to work (Cornell/Ithaca), Syracuse, and Binghamton.
The range here will be 6″to 18”+. There are many mountains that will help in the wide range of conditions.
The big winner could be around Hunter Mountain where 25 to 30 inches of snow may fall.
This is where there is BIG BUST potential. Inland areas likely to push over 1 Foot, could get to 2 Feet. However, the coastal and city areas will start with rain and are expected to end as snow. The timing of the change and duration will make or break snow totals.
This is where I grew up and there is a large contrast form the ocean to the mountains of the Hudson Valley north of NYC. This also has a BIG BUST potential depending on the transition time and duration. That will be determined by the retrograde of the Low Pressure and pull of cold air.
My REALISTIC Expectations for the COLD OUTLOOK
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss.
I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct!
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
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I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/
https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/
